7 Reasons This Mormon Thinks Mitt Romey Will Win the 2008 Republican Nomination:
- Fred Thompson is not energetic enough
- Giuliani is too corrupt (mafia connections), too sexually immoral (for conservatives), and too politically liberal
- John McCain is too old, has had too many cancer scares, has anger issues, and has questionable enough ethics to disqualify. He’s also last election’s news (actually — 2 elections ago)
- Huckleberry is completely unelectable in the generals — for his name, as well as for his past hateful rhetoric, and his entrenchment in “The Christian Right” which will turn off too many moderates and liberals.
- Ron Paul (my favorite) is too honest.
- All the others candidates are no-shows
- Yes Romney has the Mormon and flip-flop issues — but I predict that the fact that he’s the most “Presidential” of them all (and very well-funded) will carry the day for him (unless he makes a MAJOR gaffe, or has some serious skeletons in his closet).
I think so.
And this is the perspective of a Baptist minister.
(But I don’t claim to be a modern day prophet on politics.)
Isn’t it sad that the most honest one doesn’t seem to have a chance? However, I would not that he is fundraising at an incredible rate. He had over $6 million raised in a day the other week.
Todd Wood – Hah!
Jacob — I said the Republican nomination. If Ron Paul goes independent, then that could really hurt Romney in the generals.
But I don’t think Ron Paul is electable in the primaries — I see him as a “Howard Dean”-type this time around.
Flash…but no staying power w/ the base.
You forgot the most important thing: he has the best hair.
(But it’s really, really sad that one can be determined to be unelectable because he’s too honest. Should there be an exception in temple recommend interviews to allow members to not be too honest?)
He declined to wear a cowboy hat here in Idaho Falls. It would have messed up his hair.
I don’t really see him as a “Howard Dean” type. He’s more of a Barry Goldwater type, a way to get the Republican party moving back towards its small government days (which of course, never really happened, but many of us want the pendulum to swing back that way.) The real “Dean” type is Huckabee. Otherwise, I think your right, John.
Todd Wood – Romney would just look ridiculous in a cowboy hat.
My money is on Huckabee, though I would never vote for him. I agree that he will get destroyed in the general election against ANY of the democrats.
Here are two reasons why I think Romney probably will not win his party’s nomination. I could be wrong, but I’d be willing to put a dinner on it. Next time you’re in Seattle, one of us will have to pay up.
–His religion. When you see so many evangelicals that once supported Mitt switching so easily to Huckabee, it makes you wonder how much his religion still lingers in the backs of their minds. Polls still show many people will not vote for a Mormon candidate.
–His sincerity/likability/genuineness. Mitt is super articulate and smart, but many people are either confused or totally turned off by his flip flopping on many issues. He seems to be pandering to the far right (I had no idea Bob Jones endorsed him until I watched him on “Meet the Press”) that he abandoned many of his formerly moderate views.
–Independents or moderates in the Republican party (however many are left :-)) will have a hard time supporting his now right-wing views. If you turn out to be right and he does get the nomination, this will be a big reason why he loses the general election by a landslide.
We’ll see how it all plays out.
If Romney gets the nomination I predict he wins it all. With the economy going sour voters will trump the recession over every other issue.
“unless he makes a MAJOR gaffe, or has some serious skeletons in his closet).”
He made that gaffe with this ‘saw MLK’ thing. I say Mitt is finished, and really hope that he is.
cadams, it turns out that, historically when there’s a recession, U.S. voters seem to blame whatever party controls the presidency. So that just makes things worse for whoever ends up being the Republican nominee. Most professional Republicans I know are busy locking up other jobs for a year from now, because they’re expecting a bad 2008.
John, I still think you’re overestimating his chances. Remember, he may be presidential and all the other things you say, but a big chunk of Republicans just don’t like him. On a personal level. He doesn’t engage people. Plus he’s not got a consistent record on policy and he can’t seem to keep his religion straight (recently claimed that God hadn’t spoken to anyone since the time of Moses). He’s got a chance, but I still think Giuliani or Huckabee are more likely.
[…] I am no prophet, and neither am I the son of a prophet; but this I know to be facts about what the Republican party cares about (agreeing with John): […]
Oh how I wish that Ron Paul could be our next commander in chief. It is good to hear a politician speak plainly and be genuine. Though in the end I believe Billary will be our next President and based on what the Republicans have done during the past eight years, maybe this will be a good thing.
JOHN YOU ROCK!!!
RON PAUL IS THE BEST.
Please still vote for him people.
…and this is coming from a Brit.
Ron Paul makes me want to be an American…That is how much I love the guy! Why cant we have politicians in the UK like him…politics here is so tragecomedic. We are all such sheep.
The only flaw in your analysis, John, is that it assumes our candidates are chosen rationally. Was Ford better than Reagan in 76? Mondale better than Hart in 84? Dole better than the pack in 96? Kerry the best in 04? Both parties often pick the wrong candidate. Dole won in 96 because “it was his turn.” How dumb is that? Iowa and New Hampshire, two of the least representative states in the nation, have a vastly disproportionate impact on the nominating process. The whims of a minority of a minority play a huge role in who is selected. It’s not rational, which means often the best choice from a rational standpoint, is not made.
You can see that Ron Paul has the highest Google searches but the lowest results in News. The Mainstream media isnt giving him coverage…ask yourself why?
I don’t believe Romney is electable and I think Republicans know it. He is the best candidate for conservative values but Guliani or McCain will probably win so that Republicans can have a chance against Hillary or Obama. Romney’s Mormon problem was analyzed at length at the Princeton conference and it was fascinating information. If he can’t get conservatives to trust him, why would independents? They will go for the moderate candidate.
I can only imagine the attack ads on a Mormon president up against a woman or an African American. He wouldn’t have a chance.
The flip flopping is just as big of a problem for him. He deceived Mass. to get elected there. He appears disingenuous on many issues.